With continued selling in the paper gold and silver markets, here is a look at gold and Basel III’s all-important trillion dollar question.

Gold & Basel III’s Trillion-Dollar Question
June 29 (King World News) – Matthew Piepenburg at Matterhorn Asset Management (based in Switzerland):  June 28th has come and gone, which means the much-anticipated Basel III “macro prudential regulation” to make so-called “safe” banks “safer” has officially kicked off in the European Union (as it will on July 1 for U.S. banks and January 1, 2022 for UK banks). 

The trillion-dollar question for gold investors is now obvious: What next?

The short answer is:  Gold will rise, but don’t expect a straight line or zero discomfort/volatility.

The longer answer, however, deserves a bit more context, unpacking and plain-speak; so, let’s roll up our sleeves and start from the beginning.

What is Basel III?
Basel III is essentially a long-delayed, controversial and internationally agreed-upon banking regulation which now, among other things, requires commercial banks to change their “net stable funding ratio” for gold held as a tier 1 asset on their balance sheet from 50% to 85% to make banks “stronger and more resilient in times of crisis.”

(Hidden premise: Are the BIS and its regulated banks worried about another “crisis”?)

Translated into non-banker English, for each asset a bank buys, they have to insure “stable funding” (as opposed to repo money, demand deposits or excess leverage) to buy/lever more stuff…

Translated even more simply, banks can’t use as much “maturity transformation” or “duration mismatches”—i.e., leverage and short-term money for long-term speculation (arbitrage)—to buy and sell precious metals, among other things.

Basel III, in essence, is requiring banks to engage in longer (rather than shorter-term) lending, and in a nutshell, this makes it far more expensive for banks to own “unallocated” gold, as most of the gold they owned in the past was just paper levered to the moon.

Getting back to more banker-speak, Basel III is an open move that requires banks to de-lever (slow down) their trade in paper gold…

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This is accomplished by forcing/regulating banks to classify their actual physical gold holdings (bars or coins) as tier-1 (real/safe) assets and their paper gold holdings as tier 3 (levered, unsafe) assets, against which greater reserves will be required.

Translated once again into actual practice, Basel III means there will be a lot less banking leverage of, say a 400-ounce bar of gold (200:1 in 2016, to just 2.65:1 today) in the COMEX market, which market is slowly being transformed from a derivative-supported (i.e., levered) speculators’ exchange to a far more collateralized exchange.

Is Basel III Making the World Safer for Honest Banking
Seems like a good thing, right? Less margin, less tier 3 risk, more “stable” assets, more reserves, safer banking practices, stronger bank balance sheets to protect depositors and, hey, perhaps even more honest price discovery for precious metals? 

Well…Yes and No.

Yes, the new regs will force greater liquidity requirements (“Net Stable Funding Ratios”) on banks, thereby preventing them from saying (falsely) that they have gold when in fact all they had was a lot of levered paper and more than one owner for the gold they did have.

But no, this will not lead to banks suddenly going on a forced buying spree (and skyrocketing price move) to replace all their old tier 3 paper gold with shiny new real, physical tier 1 gold to meet the new reserve requirements.

Despite this, many have made hay online claiming such an instant price rise would follow, but as we’ve said before, banks may be greedy, levered and dishonest, but they aren’t stupid, unprotected or suicidal…

That is, they’ve known these regs were coming and weren’t in any hysterical panic to nervously collect their pennies and suddenly buy more tier 1 gold and silver to meet the new reg percentages. 

Not at all.

What many on the pundit-circuit and YouTube universe failed to remind their audience was that well before Basel III’s “reserve requirements” went live, those very same banks were already sitting on plenty of excess reserves thanks to prior bailouts (think 2008…).

In the U.S. banking sector, for example, the big boys were already well positioned with over $1.6T in excess reserves, yet all that is needed to meet Basel III is another $400B. 

In short, banks are not even close to worrying about a forced purchase of more gold to meet Basel III reserve percentages; instead, they can simply allocate a portion of their fat excess reserves (compliments of you the tax-payer and forced banker-bailout provider) to meet the new regs…

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Re-Arranging (“Classifying”) the Deck Chairs on the Titanic
But what we do know from Basel III is that all that unallocated paper gold on the banks’ prior balance sheets needs to be re-considered, re-shuffled and re-classified.

In plain speak for non-bankers (i.e., the rest of us), this means the banks need to make some decisions.

That is, will they set aside more money to buy physical gold to replace the paper gold, or will they simply reduce the size and scope of their old bullion business?

Take a wild guess…

As noted above, if you were expecting banks like Citi Group and Morgan (JP or Stanley) to suddenly convert all their tier 3 paper gold into tier 1 physical gold to make the 85% quota, think again. 

Instead, they’ll be dumping a lot of the paper gold rather than spark some immediate price surge in the physical market.

In other words, banks will be reducing the size and scope of the precious metal trade, which adds to the cost of lending to every player in the gold and silver space–from coin shops to mining co’s. 

Trading will tighten and clearing costs will rise to match the wider bid-ask spreads as gold and silver becomes less liquid, which could make institutional investors less interested in precious metals for no other reason than liquidity will be harder and spreads wider.

Suffice it to say, banks will always follow the path that is best for themselves and more onerous for gold in general and the rest of us little guys (i.e., anyone who isn’t a bank) in particular.

In short, expect a lot less bullion clearing services and hence much higher trading costs.

But what does that have to do with the Trillion-dollar question—namely the future direction of gold and silver pricing?

Good question.

Basel III and Precious Metal Pricing

A. The Bearish/Cynical Take

As the traders say, buy the rumor and sell the news. 

For the last three months, as Basel III rumors spread, gold saw a great deal of short covering and price upticks. 

But once the so-called Basel III “news” approached the June 28 deadline, the selling kicked in on que and gold saw expected falls, which should be classic dip-buying signals for far-sighted investors. 

Near-term, the fact that banks are reducing their bullion trades (or re-arranging their unallocated/tier 3 gold and allocated tier 1 gold) is not exactly a bullish signal for gold.

In the UK, for example, the LBMA banks live and breath primarily in the clearing and settling of unallocated, “paper” gold and silver—i.e., the very tier 3 assets most impacted by Basel III…

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As indicated above, the UK’s regulatory clock starts ticking in January, so we can expect some serious stress (i.e., lower volume) in the soon-to-be beleaguered LBMA market in 2022.

For true cynics, it’s tempting to simply see Basel III as a clever way for the BIS and their central and commercial bank minions (think Deutsche Bank) to create a tightened gold trade designed to stifle gold market activity/lending and hence shield their otherwise worthless fiat currencies, as nothing scares broke sovereigns and fake currencies more than rising gold prices.

Fair point—from a cynic like myself.

But let’s stick to what we know in real time. 

In particular, we can assert that the smaller players and traders in the gold space are about to feel a tight and painful pinch in everything from liquidity to loan terms.

Thus, for smaller enterprises in the gold sector (miners, mints, jewelers and refiners for example) who rely upon inexpensive and readily available liquidity (or loan terms), many will, as always, get priced out by the big players or loan-averse banks as more consolidation in this otherwise shrinking trading/lending universe takes place.

And as for gold traders hoping to go long to actual delivery on futures contracts with tight spreads, you’ll quickly discover that thanks to Basel III, you won’t be able to afford/use leverage to take physical delivery, but will instead have to keep rolling your contracts at a much higher price and wider spread.

Why?

Because unlike banks, whose cost of capital is zero, you won’t be given a margin account from those same (and newly regulated) banks to pay for actual delivery. 

That’s why the big banks banks are natural gold shorts: They know most traders can’t go long to full delivery. 

In other words, the cost (as well as widening bid-ask spreads) of clearing and settling precious metal trades, as well as the cost of borrowing for miners and refiners in this sector will rise considerably as banks push the rising costs down the food chain while making profits on what is effectively their own “insiders arbitrage.”

Such shrinkage in bank “precious metal departments” could make gold less attractive to certain parties (expect far less players in the LBMA pitch), and hence push precious metals downward.

B. Some Volatility & Bullish Inevitability 

On the bullish side, however, a smaller market combined with more demand and higher transactional costs can send metal prices higher, not lower.

Furthermore, the fact that Basel III reclassifies physical, or allocated, gold as a tier 1, zero-risk asset, means more banks (commercial and central) are likely to increase their vaulted positions of gold and silver.

That’s bullish…

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But as already noted, be it forward contracts in London or futures contracts on COMEX, banks will clearly be less encouraged or voluminous in the precious metal trade.

For this reason, I, and many others, expect greater price volatility in gold and silver, but ultimately far better price discovery when the myriad other gold tailwinds of which we’ve written (i.e., rising inflation, negative real rates, central bank loan guarantees and a falling dollar) outside of Basel III send gold demand (and hence gold prices) naturally higher.

With the Basel III regs in place in such a macro tailwind environment, there will be far less big-bank paper-shorts impacting silver and gold’s natural price rises going forward.  This means actual price discovery as opposed to artificial price fixing by the COMEX’s big banks.

Thus, if the BIS was hoping to discourage gold via Basel III, they may want to be careful what they ask for, as their plan is likely to backfire as the rest of the world’s currencies are already on fire and burning to ash.

Putting It Together
In sum, there is a wide arc of opinions and possibilities as to the near-term and longer-term impact of Basel III on gold and silver pricing. 

As stated above, we can expect increased price volatility, and even further declines in precious metals, but longer term, the arc of history, improved price discovery and the good ol’ natural laws of supply and demand make gold an undeniably critical asset going forward.

At Matterhorn Asset Management, we serve sophisticated precious metal investors and wealth preservation clients, not speculators, pattern traders or trend followers.

As such, near-term price moves on the backs of headline-making regulations never detract us, or our clients, from the blunt recognition that the global financial system in general, and global currencies in particular, are heading nowhere but downward. 

Gold is insurance against a system already on fire.

Ironically, the very fact that the Basel III regs are making noise today is just further evidence of this ultimate direction.

That is, the fear–as well realization–that the very financial system which the BIS and others have mis-managed for years is now at risk-levels never seen before in history precisely explains what prompted Basel III’s arrival today after so many false starts yesterday.

In other words, the very architects of the global financial crisis (an unprecedented global debt disaster coupled with a risk-asset mega bubble) are worried about the catastrophe they created and which they can no longer pin on the COVID (fiasco) alone. 

Unlike those “banking experts,” we in Zurich have always played the long game not the putting green.

 Whether Basel III brings near-term mayhem or calm to the gold markets, we have zero doubts that the only assets to bring individual calm to such global mayhem in this broken financial setting are the very same assets the big boys are currently doing their best to “regulate,” namely: Gold and silver.

Ironically, and despite even Basel III’s attempt to make allocated gold a risk-free priority over unallocated paper gold on their own balance sheets, we also know, and have know for decades, that even the “allocated” gold held by their bank customers is not in fact owned by the customers, but by the banks themselves.

That’s why we store our clients’ fully insured precious metals outside of this fractured and band-aid regulated banking system in secured vaults where the gold is held and marked in client names, not ours.

Alas: Zero counter-party risk, 100% ownership.

Stated otherwise, we’ve been thinking way ahead of the bankers and their regulators for years. 

Amidst all this noise are simple guideposts. 

We knew physical gold was a “safe asset” long before Basel III made it tier 1 official; we also knew, like many other sophisticated investors, that “non-yielding” physical gold was a far superior asset than negative yielding sovereign bonds…

Heck, even the central banks themselves can’t deny this, which is why they’ve been purchasing more gold than Treasuries.

In short, what banks do and what they say are very different things. Basel III is just another attempt to make the unsafe appear safe, whereas we’ve been safe (and more prepared) all along.

For serious precious metal investors seeking genuine wealth preservation and currency insurance managed by the global leader in premier gold and silver stored in the world’s most secure vault, we are a far better choice than the banks. Visit us at https://goldswitzerland.com/ to see why.

Also released: Behaving Like An Ass Indicator Flashing Again, Plus Most Bullish Macro Set Up For Gold & Silver In Over 50 Years CLICK HERE.
Also released: Skyrocketing Transportation Costs Ramping Inflation As Monetary Madness Goes Parabolic CLICK HERE.
Also released: Leeb – Expect A Gold Price 10 Or Even 20 Times Higher Than Today And A Crisis In The Silver Market CLICK HERE.

To listen to the most informative interview about Basel 3 and how it will impact the gold market going forward CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss what investors should expect to see next week after Basel III implementation CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

INFLATION ALERT: The bill may finally be coming due for “free” money.

Feeling the Pinch
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
November 6 (King World News) – Inflation is one topic that I haven’t mentioned in a while, and we are now starting to see an ever-so-slight change in inflation expectations. I mention that because today, Sysco Corp., which distributes food and related products in the food service industry, was unsuccessful at beat-the-number and the stock price fell 10%. The company cited higher costs, particularly for warehousing and transportation, as one of the reasons its results came up short…

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I mention this because in last Thursday’s Wall Street Journal there was an article above the fold headlined, “From Coke to Clorox, Inflation Hits Home,” which began,

“U.S. companies are raising prices on everything from plane tickets to paint, passing on to customers higher costs for fuel, metal and food after years of low inflation…

“The higher prices have effectively ended a long period of low inflation that led the Federal Reserve to keep short-term interest rates near zero for years.”

When the Bill Comes Due for “Free” Money
So it appears that folks are finally beginning to become sensitized to rising prices, and once that happens it ought to be clear that prices have really been rising more than folks have realized for some time. Eventually it will be obvious to everyone that printing money leads to higher costs for goods and services after the money washes through the financial markets.

This means that future rounds of QE may not be treated the same way by markets as the last three. In other words, at some point the Fed may try to ride to the rescue with the same policy and it may backfire on them — that is, they will lose control of the bond market.

Not to get ahead of myself, but my goal is to point out that, after waiting patiently for signs of changes in inflation psychology, they may be here.

King World News note:  A change in inflation psychology, including a surge in inflation, will be extremely bullish for gold and silver in the medium- to long-term.  Remember, gold and silver are still extremely cheap on a relative basis as well as the shares of the high-quality companies that mine the metals.

***To subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s fascinating Daily Thoughts CLICK HERE.

***KWN has released the powerful audio interview with James Turk and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

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As people continue to digest breaking news out of Greece and around the world, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, warns about the most dangerous bubble in the world, and it will surprise you.  Russell also discusses what it all means as well as how investors can protect themselves.

Richard Russell: “Below we see a chart of the Dow Jones Transports. The Transports have (recently) plunged below both their moving averages to a new six-month low.

Surprisingly, the Dow and the S&P have recently recorded new record highs. Has this ever happened before – a new high in the Industrials against a six-month low in the Transportation average? I’ve combed through my charts of the averages and I can tell you that this has never happened before.

What Does It All Mean?

But what does it mean, and what is it telling us? Transports have tested their lows and are moving higher. This action calls for a bottom in the Transports. With the Transports bottoming, the entire stock market is set to move higher.

The goods may be manufactured (Industrials) but they must be sold and shipped (Transports). The Transports are acting as if the economy is coming to a halt. The Fed and the government claim that the statistics for the first quarter were biased to the downside by rotten weather and remnants of the great recession. Wall Street and the Fed now wait anxiously for news of the economy for the second quarter.

The dollar is down hard and surprisingly, gold is lower. With the stock market stronger across the board, it may be that the Fed will take heart and produce an interest hike (probably a very small one) later this year. The stock market is telling us that the economy is improving.

The Most Surprising And Dangerous Bubble In The World

I read dozens of newsletters and market advisories and almost all of them are scratching their heads as they attempt to call a top to this bull market. Today many people are asking if there is a bubble and if so, where is it? My answer is that the bubble is in the production of fiat currency and I keep one proverb in mind, “no tree grows to the sky.”

I’ve never seen a top formed when so many advisors are searching for a top. I’ve been thinking about this market night after night, and my conclusion is that it’s fruitless to try and call a final top. It comes down to a matter of philosophy, why try to do the impossible? Method after method has attempted to call a top, but so far nothing has worked.

The stock market continues to confound serious and seasoned investors. History is being made as investors tear their hair out while attempting to position themselves in this strange environment.

My Conclusion Is To Own Pure Wealth – Physical Gold And Silver

My conclusion is that if nothing works, stop trying. My advice is to be out of the stock market and to take a position in pure historical wealth, which means a position in physical silver and gold.

If you don’t know what the market is telling us, don’t act as if you do know. Step aside and watch the show; history is being made. The best we can do is avoid major losses. So take a step back and enjoy a period unlike any that has ever occurred before.

Auction And Real Estate Markets Are On Fire!

Many smart investors who have access to unlimited funds have turned to the auction markets and real estate in New York. In the auction markets we are seeing one of a kind items going for astoundingly high prices.

Recently, the Christie’s auction house set a record of one billion dollars in sales during a single day. A 26 carat diamond sold for over $100 million, a record for a single gem stone. A Picasso painting sold for over $140 million, a record price for any item on auction. Prize apartments have sold for over $100 million while they remain vacant.

…………………………………. 

Late Notes — Fifteen minutes before the close, Industrials are up 104, Transports are up 100, and the Nasdaq is up 20. The stock market likes today’s action.  Gold is down 9 to 1185 and silver, which is acting better than gold, is down 0.29 to 16.51. My interpretation is Transports hit bottom.” I would urge all KWN readers around the world to subscribe to Richard Russell’s 90 years of wisdom and remarkable writings at Dow Theory Letters by CLICKING HERE TO SUBSCRIBE.

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(King World News) – After a wild start to the 2018 trading year, here is the key for gold, the US dollar, oil, and something we haven’t seen in 10 years!

First time we have seen this in 10 years!

WARNING: All-time record commercial short position in crude oil

As for gold, it will continue to trade inverse to the US dollar, which is now teetering on the edge of collapse (see chart below).

GOLD BULLISH: US Dollar now teetering on the edge of collapse

The Bottom Line For Gold And The Dollar
The bottom line is that if the US Dollar Index breaks the key support at 90 – 91 level, the index will tumble all the way to 84 (at a minimum).  Dollar bulls had better pull it together quickly or the buck will plunge nearly 10% in a hurry.  Of course this will be extremely bullish for gold and silver if this unfolds.  Regardless, the bullish catalysts are in place for gold and silver to see big gains in 2018.

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Today a 40-year market veteran sent King World News an incredibly important piece that discusses more disturbing developments, the war on cash and the endgame.  This piece exclusively for KWN also covers what is happening in the key markets, including energy, stocks, gold and silver.

By Robert Fitzwilson of The Portola Group

April 26 (King World News) – While last week left us with the impression of “same old, same old” as far as the attacks on the price of gold and the mainstream media trumpeting the excitement of new highs for the popular stock indexes, the reality is that the year is playing out in similar fashion to last year.

While you will never hear it from the mainstream financial media, the leader in both years has been the HUI Mining Index….

Continue reading the Robert Fitzwilson piece below…

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While the NASDAQ Composite is out in front of the HUI at the moment, it took a week of dramatic earnings announcements, horrific short-covering by those betting against traditional technology and biotech firms, and two punishing attacks on the metals and miners to push the NASDAQ out in front.

For the current quarter and month, the star performer remains the HUI. The Index is up 9%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up 2% and 4%, respectively. The headlines tout the stock market, but the value inherent in the metals and miners is being recognized. At least some of the market participants understand the deep value embodied in these assets.

While manipulation can be seen in all markets, there is a stubborn rationality behind what we are seeing. In the bond market, there has been tremendous volatility in the last year and a half, but that volatility is dampening out as the reality of too much money chasing yield and no place to put it incessantly drives yields lower and further negative in many parts of the world.

Disturbing Developments

Reports of refusals by banks to allow cash withdrawals as well as a burgeoning institutional and academic attack on the concept of cash itself are disturbing developments. Those holding demand deposits at banks should become increasingly concerned about the safety of their funds. Those concerns will further drive capital into short-term fixed income and out of banks, making the Fed’s goal of raising rates irrelevant. People will be concerned about getting their money back, not the trivial interest rate being paid on cash. Short-term fixed income will be the preferred alternative.

This trend will also feed the corporate stock buyback frenzy. Free money and free excess cash flow will force companies into more M&A activity and shrinking their float. The price of stocks might be going higher, but the valuations being used to justify the higher prices are often a function of such stock repurchases. Reducing the outstanding stock makes the earnings per share number look better, but the trend in sales is down. That is a game that will come to an end soon unless sustainable sales growth can be restarted. Nothing on the horizon suggests that as a possibility. The stock indexes can keep going up, but the moment the sales declines negate the stock buybacks, there will be trouble.

Propaganda, Energy And A Fall Guy

Another area of focus has been energy. Following the dramatic decline in price that began in the middle of last year, it appears that oil did reach a bottom in the mid-40s. Despite the continuing propaganda about lack of demand and storage facilities being at capacity, the reality is that global demand is growing at a substantial pace and has caused the price of oil to keep rising despite the attempts to drive it lower. Saudi Arabia continues to play games with their press releases about increasing production, forgetting to mention that substantial capacity has been unilaterally shut in for the “neutral zone” jointly operated with Kuwait in the past.

The good news from our prospective is that it feels as if the manipulation and the propaganda are being exposed to an ever-widening audience. The vast majority of people are unaware of what is swirling around them and could care less. Tragedy is when their favorite contestant is voted off Dancing With The Stars. The rest of us who care are trapped in an echo chamber, the loudest voices in which have been the central planners, the mainstream media and the manipulators.

The recent “revelation” about the fellow in London being the cause of the Flash Crash would have been taken for fact not too long ago. In contrast, many suspect that he is just the latest “fall guy”. He probably flew too close to the system and had to be taken down. If there is any hope for a less than catastrophic conclusion to the path upon which we find ourselves, it will take more exposure of the perpetrators, their mechanisms and their methodologies.

In our distorted financial world, there is a rationality to the performances we are seeing in the markets highlighted above. We expect that the metals, miners, energy and legitimate high growth companies in the stock market will continue to be the most attractive allocations. For those with significant amounts of cash held by banks, the ominous developments suggest that time is very short to get as far away from those financial institutions as possible. ***Also, KWN has just released John Mauldin’s remarkable audio interview and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

 ***ALSO RELEASED: A Stunning Look At All-Time Record Margin Debt Investors Hold CLICK HERE.

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Andrew Maguire Interview Ab

As we come to the end of a wild week, the KWN interview with Andrew Maguire is about to be released but first, take a look at this…

FX And Gold
By Peter Boockvar, Managing Director, Lindsey Group & Author Boockreport.com
September 8 (King World News) – Here is what Peter Boockvar noted as the world awaits the next round of monetary madness:  Don’t fight the markets, especially in FX. Eventually you will lose. I send this message to central bankers who try their best to battle the FX market that trades $7 Trillion per day in notional value. All the QE and NIRP that the BoJ and ECB have initiated, let alone the NIRP and QE out of the Swiss, Danish and Swedes, doesn’t always result in an FX level that you want it to be…

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Also, remember the history of direct failed FX interventions, particularly in Japan. Again, buy gold. It is approaching the highest level in 4 years. Unlike crypto currencies which now seemingly can be created in an unlimited fashion by anyone with a computer (there are now more than 1000 different ones), gold supply is really hard to get out of the ground, grows only about 1% per year and has been around for 5000 years. Also, why is every picture of bitcoin in the color of gold? ***Andrew Maguire KWN interview is about to be released!

***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Here Is What To Watch After Today’s Action In Gold & Silver CLICK HERE.

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